Barreling on
Business Standard / New Delhi December 01, 2005
The economy continues to outpace forecasters, none of whom predicted either the 8.1 per cent GDP growth achieved in the first quarter, nor the 8 per cent now reported by the Central Statistical Organisation for the second (July-September) quarter. It is now more or less certain that growth in the full financial year will exceed the Reserve Bank’s upper limit forecast of 7.5 per cent. If achieved, that will take average growth in the 2003-06 period to 7.6 per cent, matching the record of 1994-97, but recorded this time with moderate inflation and without macro-economic imbalances other than the growing current account deficit (for which, blame oil). These “advance estimates” of quarterly GDP, released a month earlier than the usual schedule, must have been available to the Prime Minister ahead of public release, making him bold enough to hold out the prospect of 10 per cent growth at the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Delhi a day earlier.